Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Seven furlongs on dirt.
The morning-line favorite is No. 2 Ways and Means, a 5-year-old mare trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat. She is well suited to the distance, and her stalking style should work well in this race. She comes in after two impressive wins at Saratoga in late summer. My concern is that she has had more success in New York than elsewhere, and this race is at Keeneland.
The challenge is finding a horse who can beat her. No. 11 Explora, a 3-year-old filly trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Jose Ortiz, has plenty of speed and appears to be coming into her best form. There is a lot of early speed in this race, but I don’t think Explora has to lead from the start.
No. 7 Evanescence, a 4-year-old filly trained by Eddie Keneally and ridden by Luis Saez, ran well last time out, winning the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland. She has won three times over the course, making her my top selection.
My picks: 7–11–2
Race 5: Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Five and a half furlongs on turf.
All eyes will be on No. 3 Bacio, a 3-year-old colt trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Juan Hernandez. He has won five of his six starts, with one second-place finish, and has shown impressive form in both the United States and Europe. Keeneland is his home track, although he has not yet raced over its turf course. Ward believes training at the track gives Bacio an advantage. He is quick out of the gate, maintains a high cruising speed, and has proved difficult to catch.
One of the main contenders is No. 10 Cy Fair, a 3-year-old filly trained by George Weaver. She won last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint. Her most recent race at Kentucky Downs can be forgiven; some horses do not handle that distinctive course well. Before that, she won consecutive races at Saratoga and Churchill Downs and appears to be in top form.
If the early speed collapses, No. 6 Yellow Card, a 4-year-old gelding trained by Michael W. McCarthy, could make a late run. He would be my selection, but he has not raced since winning the Twin Spires Turf Sprint in May. The layoff concerns me, so I’m sticking with Bacio.
My picks: 3–6–10
Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
One mile on dirt.
No. 1 Further Ado, a 3-year-old colt trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat, is the favorite. At his best, he looks capable of beating this field, but he has also turned in some disappointing efforts. At a short price, I think it is wise to move him down the ticket.
No. 9 Forged Steel, a 3-year-old colt trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, looked like an emerging star in the spring, then struggled through the summer. He returned with a sharp effort to win the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita and could offer value.
My top pick is No. 10 Owen Almighty, a 4-year-old colt trained by Brian Lynch and ridden by Luis Saez. He lost to Bishops Bay in the Ack Ack Stakes last time out. Bishops Bay would have been one of the leading contenders here, but his connections pointed him elsewhere. Owen Almighty encountered trouble behind a tiring rival in the Ack Ack, but kept coming once he found room. With a clean trip, he could get to the winner’s circle.
My picks: 10–9–1
Race 7: Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
One and three-sixteenths miles on turf.
This looks like a two-horse contest between No. 11 Precise, a 3-year-old filly trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, and No. 12 Blue Bolt, a 4-year-old filly trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Colin Keane.
Blue Bolt has won six straight races and nine of her 12 career starts. The question is whether she will handle the longer distance. I think her off-the-pace running style should suit the added ground.
Precise has not won since June, but she has been competitive against strong opposition. The mile-and-three-sixteenths distance should suit her.
The leading U.S.-based contender is No. 1 Gimme a Nother, a 6-year-old mare trained by Graham Motion and ridden by John Velazquez. She is versatile, able to race near the pace or come from behind. She is on a four-race winning streak and has won 11 of her 15 career starts.
My picks: 12–11–1
Race 8: Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Six furlongs on dirt.
No. 13 Englishman, a 3-year-old colt trained by Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Jose Ortiz, is a standout. He has won four of his five starts, often by widening margins, and has speed at every stage of a race. The main question is whether shortening up from seven furlongs will make a difference.
If Englishman falters, No. 11 T O Elvis, a 5-year-old Japanese horse trained by Daisuke Takayanagi and ridden by Ryusei Sakai, is a logical alternative. He has won his last five races, including a victory at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day. However, that was his only start this year, and the long absence is a concern.
No. 7 Built, a 4-year-old colt trained by Wayne Catalano and ridden by Luis Saez, could be a surprise. He has looked strong in his last two starts, winning both.
I’m still leaning toward Englishman.
My picks: 13–11–7
Race 9: FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile
One mile on turf.
No. 8 Notable Speech, a 5-year-old horse trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick, is the defending champion, having won the race last year at Del Mar. He had a disappointing start at Keeneland this spring, but has since regained form, winning three of his last four starts. I still think he is vulnerable.
Despite the powerful connections of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, No. 14 Puerto Rico, a 3-year-old colt, is a longshot. He has not won this year, but showed signs of returning to form with a third-place finish in the Prix de la Forêt at Longchamp. I think he could improve and surprise.
No. 9 Rhetorical, a 5-year-old gelding trained by Will Walden and ridden by Jose Ortiz, is among the best U.S.-based horses in the field. He has won twice at Keeneland, including his latest start in the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes. He is a strong contender, though I think he may be a step behind the top choices.
My picks: 14–8–9
Race 10: Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff
One and one-eighth miles on dirt.
No. 2 Nitrogen, a 4-year-old filly trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Jose Ortiz, will be a major favorite—and deservedly so. She is exceptionally fast, breaks well, and can maintain her speed throughout a race. She is also versatile: although she likes to lead, she can rate behind the pace. I think she will be hard to beat, but she is likely to be a short price.
No. 4 Fully Subscribed, a 4-year-old mare trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, will also attract support. She has been dominant in her recent starts, including a win in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland on October 4. Her stalking style should suit this relatively short field.
No. 3 Regaled, a 5-year-old mare trained by Whit Beckman and ridden by Joseph Ramos, is my third choice. If the early speed duel gets too intense, she could close strongly.
My picks: 2–4–3
Race 11: Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
One and one-half miles on turf.
This may be the most wide-open race on the card.
No. 12 Diamond Necklace, a 3-year-old filly trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, is the 3–1 morning-line favorite. She had some impressive wins in the summer but comes into the race after the first two defeats of her career.
No. 13 Bay City Roller, a 3-year-old colt trained by George Scott and ridden by Oisin Murphy, finished ahead of Diamond Necklace at Longchamp before returning two weeks later to finish third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. This will be his third start this month. He has ability, but I’m concerned about the short rest.
That brings me to my longshot, No. 11 Survie, a 5-year-old mare trained by George Boughey and ridden by Flavien Prat. She travelled to the United States in the summer and won back-to-back races at Saratoga. Her latest result—a 10th-place finish at Longchamp in September—looks poor on paper, but she was blocked and eased late. I think this could be her day, and she is my top choice.
My picks: 11–12–13
Race 12: Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic
One and one-quarter miles on dirt.
Ric Flair used to say that to be the man, you have to beat the man—and No. 5 Forever Young is the horse to beat. The 5-year-old Japanese horse, trained by Yoshito Yahagi and ridden by Ryusei Sakai, is the defending Classic champion. He has 12 wins, one second, and three thirds from 16 starts. He is the deserving favorite, and I expect him to run well from a stalking position.
No. 7 Knightsbridge, a 4-year-old colt trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, comes into the race after back-to-back dominant wins: a 10¼-length victory in the Monmouth Cup in July and a 6¼-length win in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August. Mott and Alvarado have teamed up for many major wins, and Knightsbridge would not be a surprise winner. However, he does his best running close to the pace. With Napoleon Solo also in the race, a speed duel could wear them both down.
A longshot possibility is No. 4 The Puma, a 3-year-old colt trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Javier Castellano. He has been inconsistent, but has shown he can produce an impressive race. This is by far the toughest field he has faced, but he has room to improve at an inviting price. Since I expect several favorites to win on Saturday, I’m taking a chance and putting him on top.
My picks: 4–5–7
