The Breeders’ Cup begins tomorrow with five races and concludes Saturday with the final nine. This year’s event is being held at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky.
Friday’s card has 10 races, with the first Breeders’ Cup race scheduled as Race 6, the Juvenile Turf Sprint. The race is contested over 5½ furlongs on turf and is for two-year-olds.
My top selection is Libertango, the No. 3 horse. Trained by George Boughey and ridden by top jockey Flavien Prat, the European invader has an impressive record: three wins and two seconds from five starts. One of her most impressive victories came in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, where she beat a field of 25. In her most recent start, she finished a strong second, getting caught late by Sun Goddess, who will be favored in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Another top contender is Brickyard Belle, the No. 4 horse, a filly from trainer Miguel Clement’s barn. She is two-for-two in her brief career. Her come-from-behind style could be an advantage, although she has not faced competition of the same caliber as Libertango.
My longshot is Good to Be King, the No. 2 horse, trained by Rusty Arnold and ridden by Manuel Franco. He comes from well off the pace, but could get up in time at a decent price.
My picks 3–4–2
Race 7: Juvenile Fillies
The Juvenile Fillies is run at 1 1/16 miles on dirt.
These are young two-year-old fillies, most of whom have made fewer than three starts, so there is not much form to go on. Emphatic has won all three of her starts and has already won at Keeneland and at this distance. There is little to argue against her as a top selection, other than the short price, but let’s try to beat her.
The next logical choice is also likely to be at short odds. (My pic) Miss Monica, from Bob Baffert’s barn, is undefeated in two starts and has dominated her races in the West.
Manuka Honey, trained by Brian Lynch, is undefeated in three starts and has shown the ability to close from off the pace.
My longshot is Life Changing. She got a relatively late start to her career, making her debut on August 1 in a dominant wire-to-wire performance going six furlongs. Her next two starts were less impressive, but I think she had excuses: she bobbled at the start in one race and encountered an off track in the other. She should be a long price and is worth including on your ticket.
My picks 5-10-12-8
Race 8: Juvenile Fillies Turf
The Juvenile Fillies Turf is run over one mile on turf.
As mentioned earlier, this is Sun Goddess’srace to lose. She is coming off a track-record performance in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, she has two Group 1 wins and a résumé that no other horse in the field can match. The main question is whether she will handle the distance, so let’s try to beat her.
We’ll look to O’Brien’s son, Joseph Patrick O’Brien and his entry (my pick) Green Empress. From the rail, she should be able to save ground, and she has a strong late kick. With the right trip, she could pull off the surprise.
Two American horses to watch are Domestic Agenda, trained by Chad Brown and drawn in post 12, and Seneca Park, from Dallas Stewart’s barn. Seneca Park is a front-running filly with two wins from three starts, including a runner-up finish over the course on October 2.
My picks 1-9-12-13
Race 9: Juvenile
The Juvenile is for colts and geldings and is run at 1 1/16 miles on dirt.
This is one of the smaller fields on the card. It was originally slated to have eight horses but was reduced to seven after a scratch.
Hughes, trained by Bob Baffert, is the even-money morning-line favorite. He is four-for-four and has dominated every start, while already winning at the distance.
He will be tough to beat, but American History, trained by Todd Pletcher, could offer value. He is two-for-two and won at Keeneland on October 3, going a mile. Another possible upsetter is Salahudin, Hughes’s stablemate, who is also undefeated in three starts.
My picks 5-6-3
Race 10: Juvenile Turf
The Juvenile Turf is for colts and geldings and is run over one mile on turf.
This may be the most wide-open race of the day. The likely favorite, How’s Al Today, won his last two races at Kentucky Downs, a unique, undulating course. I don’t want to take anything away from those efforts, but I think he may simply have taken to that track. There are other horses in this field who could compete at a better price.
I’m leaning toward Avec Toi, trained by Christopher Head. All of his races have been in France, and he won his first four starts. He finished sixth in his most recent race, against Group 1 company, but his connections appear undeterred: they have travelled to the U.S. for the race and are adding blinkers. I’m willing to forgive that last effort and give him another chance.
Another horse who could offer a price is Agate, who comes off a good win in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. He closes from off the pace and should be flying late.
My picks: 2–13–5
