Arthur Ashe Stadium — Saturday, September 12, 2026
The final chapter of the 2026 U.S. Open women’s singles tournament promises a blockbuster showdown as No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka meets No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina for the championship.
Sabalenka arrives with history within reach. The defending champion is attempting to win her third consecutive U.S. Open title, a feat that would put her alongside an elite group of champions. Rybakina, meanwhile, has reached the U.S. Open final for the first time and enters the championship match having secured the world No. 1 ranking regardless of Saturday’s result.
The Road to the Final
Sabalenka booked her place in the final by defeating American Jessica Pegula 7-5, 6-2 in the semifinals. After surviving a dramatic three-set quarterfinal against Linda Noskova, Sabalenka produced a much more authoritative performance against Pegula, striking 29 winners and seven aces.
Rybakina had to work considerably harder to reach the final. She came from a set down to defeat Coco Gauff 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in a tense semifinal. Gauff made the stronger start, but Rybakina gradually took control with her serve and aggressive baseline game.
Key Matchup: Power vs. Power
This is a final built around first-strike tennis.
Sabalenka’s advantage:
Her explosive forehand, heavy serve and ability to overwhelm opponents from the baseline make her particularly dangerous on Arthur Ashe Stadium’s big stage. Her return game can also turn neutral points into immediate pressure.
Rybakina’s advantage:
Rybakina possesses one of the most imposing serves in women’s tennis and combines it with remarkably clean groundstrokes. If she protects her service games, she can force Sabalenka to play under constant scoreboard pressure.
The battle for the first four or five shots of each rally could be decisive. Neither player will want to spend long stretches defending.
Three Keys to Victory
1. Serve percentage
Both players rely heavily on their serves. The one who consistently earns free points and avoids second-serve pressure will gain a major advantage.
2. Forehand exchanges
Sabalenka will look to dictate with her forehand, while Rybakina will try to redirect pace and strike through the court. Whoever controls the center of the court could control the match.
3. Handling the big moments
A Grand Slam final can turn on a single break point or tiebreak. Sabalenka has considerable experience in this environment, while Rybakina will be playing her first U.S. Open final.
What History Says
Sabalenka has the bigger résumé at Flushing Meadows, having won the tournament in 2024 and 2025. She is now one victory away from an extraordinary three-peat.
Rybakina has already guaranteed herself a historic achievement by becoming the new world No. 1. She now has the opportunity to add her third Grand Slam championship and her first U.S. Open crown.
The rivalry is also closely contested: Sabalenka and Rybakina have split their three meetings this season, adding another layer of intrigue to Saturday’s showdown.
Prediction
This should be a high-quality final with very little separating the two players.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Elena Rybakina, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
Sabalenka’s experience in U.S. Open finals gives her the narrowest of edges. Expect Rybakina to make her serve count and push the defending champion deep into the match, but Sabalenka’s ability to raise her level during the biggest points could ultimately deliver a historic third straight U.S. Open championship.
Bottom line: Rybakina has the opportunity to begin her reign as world No. 1 with a Grand Slam title. Sabalenka has the chance to make history. That makes this one of the most compelling women’s finals the U.S. Open has staged in years.
